The commercial vehicle industry is navigating a period of profound transformation, characterized by stable long-term growth yet significant disruption in technology, power, and workforce talent. During the 2025 Fall Commercial Vehicle Business Summit (CVBS), Kathryn Schifferle, founder and Chief Vision Officer of Work Truck Solutions and Jameel Ghata, Chief Strategy Officer at PAVE, offered a compelling outlook on this evolving market, highlighting that while the industry’s foundation remains secure, its day-to-day operations and skill demands are fundamentally shifting.

Stability and Sustained Growth

The foundational stability of the commercial vehicle market is its defining characteristic. The sector is intrinsically linked to the economy. As Ghata noted, “we’re looking at 1.9 million units in ’26… the outlook does call for around 16% growth.” This resilience means that even during near-term softness, such as those caused by tariffs and supply chain recalibration, the outlook remains robust.

The growth may not be linear, with some near-term softness particularly affecting electrification, but the industry is not one that will simply “disappear.” As Schifferle put it, “If housing starts are down, housing repairs go up….You always are going to need a plumber.”

The Alternative Fuel “Messy Middle”

The path toward decarbonization is far from a straight line; instead, the industry is currently in what is being termed the “messy middle.” This phase sees the coexistence of diesel, natural gas, and multiple electric powertrains, both battery and hybrid.

While internal combustion engines (ICE) remain dominant today, accounting for roughly 98% of builds, the tide is shifting. Forecasts predict that by 2035–2036, electric powertrains (battery and hybrid combined) will account for a meaningful 45% of commercial builds. The case for electrification is shifting, evolving beyond incentives. As Cox Automotive Industry Insights highlighted, “With $7,500 incentives eliminated, the case for EVs now rests on performance, technology, and total cost of ownership, rather than subsidies.”

The adoption of alternative fuels is heavily dependent on three factors: the size of the fleet (larger fleets can absorb the cost and risk of experimentation more easily), geography (colder climates pose uptime challenges), and the use case. The success of this transition, Ghata added, critically relies on public-private infrastructure partnerships.

From Vehicles to Data Platforms

The entire commercial vehicle ecosystem is transforming from assets into data platforms. Within five years, it is expected that every truck coming off the line will be a rolling data center. This shift is creating a massive data economy, and the role of software is exploding. It is predicted to account for 50% of the total vehicle cost by 2030, up from just 10% in 2021.

This connectivity drives the next phase of fleet technology. Core technologies like telematics and data analytics are now standard, and fleet readiness for technology adoption has improved drastically. However, the future is not about adding more tech; it’s about integration. The goal is to move from disconnected systems to unified platforms that provide end-to-end visibility.

This integration allows technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) to move beyond back-end efficiency. AI is becoming a decision-making core of fleet management, helping to predict maintenance, automate inspections, and integrate vehicles, data, and staff into a cohesive management ecosystem.

The Evolving Talent Landscape

Perhaps the greatest disruption of all is human. 

According to Ghata, technology is “moving faster than talent.” This is pushing the industry to fundamentally rethink its workforce.

The traditional skills that built the sector, mechanical and logistical, are rapidly “evolving into more software, data, and systems roles.” This transformation creates new, non-traditional demands that require organizations to “reskill at scale” and “rethink training and recruitment.”

The future of commercial vehicles isn’t just about what is under the hood; it’s about understanding how to manage the data stream, underscoring the shift from selling physical assets to selling expertise and consultative service. This acceleration in workforce evolution, Ghata concluded, is “not going to stop… it’s only going to accelerate.”

The insights shared in this article were excerpted from the session “Keynote: CV Market Outlook” at the 2025 Fall Commercial Vehicle Business Summit (CVBS). Click the Iink to watch the full full video.