They say, “You can’t see where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been.” While it may be a cliché, it holds undeniable truth, especially in the commercial vehicle industry. From the horse-drawn freight wagons of the past to the electric and autonomous vehicles on the horizon, history has a way of leaving breadcrumbs that hint at what’s coming next. Like the iconic film Back to the Future, where the past and future are interconnected, the evolution of commercial transportation is a constant loop of innovation, adaptation, and reinvention. By analyzing where we’ve been, assessing where we are now, and envisioning what’s ahead, we can uncover the trends and forces shaping the next chapter of the industry.

Where We’ve Been

Before the upheaval of the pandemic, auto dealers operated within a relatively stable ecosystem, balancing inventory levels, adjusting to shifting consumer preferences, and navigating the steady march of technological advancements. Supply chains were predictable, and demand followed familiar seasonal patterns. Then, seemingly overnight, the COVID-19 pandemic shattered those norms. Factory shutdowns, microchip shortages, and volatile economic conditions left dealers scrambling to adjust. Vehicle availability plummeted, prices soared, and consumer expectations shifted as digital retailing took center stage. The market that once relied on steady, in-person interactions suddenly had to reinvent itself, introducing new strategies for survival and selling in an era of uncertainty.

Where We are Now

The commercial vehicle market in 2025 is being shaped by lingering effects of the pandemic-era disruptions, trade war uncertainties, and the evolving strategies of commercial vehicle dealers.

As Steve Greenfield, founder and CEO of Automotive Ventures, describes, “Today’s dealers are coming down off of a raging sugar high following the artificially inflated margins of 2021 and 2022.”

Although profits remain stronger than pre-COVID levels, the industry is adjusting to increased competition, steady supply, and fluctuating tariff concerns that continue to challenge long-term stability.

One of the most pressing concerns for U.S. automakers is the rapid expansion of Chinese OEMs. Greenfield highlights that, outside the U.S., “You’ll see a proliferation of new Chinese brands on the street,” producing high-quality internal combustion and electric vehicles at remarkably low prices. While tariffs provide temporary protection, he warns, “Tariffs are a short-term band-aid, and U.S. manufacturers must develop strategies to remain competitive.”

Kathryn Schifferle, founder and Chief Vision Officer of Work Truck Solutions, sees these shifts as an opportunity for dealers to embrace the consistency of commercial vehicle sales. While retail auto dealers grapple with unpredictable consumer behavior, commercial demand remains steady. “Commercial is consistent, the demand is consistent. It’s predictable, especially if you’re using data,” Schifferle explains. “Unlike individual consumers who might delay maintenance for convenience, businesses rely on their fleets and cannot afford downtime, creating a lucrative service and support market for dealers who recognize the opportunity.”

Visions of the Future

If dealers truly desire a return to pre-pandemic margins, they must seek new revenue streams to maintain profitability. According to Greenfield, “Commercial has been a secret weapon for a long time for those dealers who embraced it early.”

Historically seen as complex and requiring deep industry knowledge, the commercial vehicle market is now more accessible thanks to advances in technology, making it easier for dealerships to integrate commercial sales and service into their operations.

Schifferle highlights how innovation is transforming the industry: “Technology has captured all of the configuration information—what kinds of vehicles are used for what kinds of use cases—and created easy ways to streamline the process.”

With major OEMs rolling out dedicated commercial platforms such as FordPro, GM Envolve, and RAM Professional, dealerships have more tools than ever to serve commercial customers efficiently. Greenfield sees this shift as a win-win scenario. “The OEMs have woken up and understand this is a high-margin opportunity,” he explains.

Dealers who focus on lifetime customer value rather than short-term profits can establish lasting relationships with commercial customers. Even more significantly, this loyalty often extends beyond commercial transactions, creating ripple effects into personal vehicle sales and service, strengthening dealership profitability in multiple areas.

“If you serve commercial buyers in a way that supports their business and keeps them up and running, they’re very loyal,” explains Schifferle. “And that loyalty translates into what we call the ‘one-to-many’ phenomenon, which is when the people involved with a business account begin to bring you their retail business.”

OEMs are not the only ones to recognize the potential of commercial business. Savvy dealers are also on board as Greenfield relates, “I asked Michael Hayes from the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) if there was a common theme for the top performing dealers across the U.S., and he said, ‘Oh, that’s easy. They focus on the lifetime value of the customer. They aren’t focused on maximizing profitability in the short term, nor are they about making the most profit off of a single transaction. They think holistically around the customer, and they create lifetime value for customers who keep coming back to buy and service cars and trucks.’ ”

Conclusion

The future of the commercial vehicle market will be shaped by innovation, efficiency, and strategic positioning. As technology advances and OEMs invest more heavily in commercial vehicle solutions, dealerships that embrace this opportunity can carve out a sustainable and profitable path forward—one built on consistency, service, and long-term customer relationships.

This article is excerpted from the 2025 Spring CVBS session, “Two Auto Futurists Talk Commercial.” Click here for the full YouTube session, or watch on the player below.