The commercial vehicle sector finds itself in a period of striking duality. While the long-term outlook remains robust, with the global truck market projected to reach an impressive $18 trillion valuation by 2035, the immediate reality for the industry is one of market turbulence.

Navigating this “new normal” requires more than patience; it demands a shift from reactive crisis management to embedding strategic resilience. In a recent CVBS Fall 2025 session, Jim Press, a senior advisor to Work Truck Solutions, opened up the discussion with a quote that reflects this reality: “I can’t quote Greek philosophers on this, but as my old mentor Lee Iacocca said, ‘Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.’”

Success, as highlighted by industry leaders, hinges on two actions: executing core business fundamentals well and effectively embracing transformation.

Navigating Contraction and Geopolitical Risk

Compounding current economic headwinds is the tariff and regulatory squeeze, increasing equipment costs and generating supply chain uncertainty. Customer caution, driven by these factors, has led some fleets to push back large purchases and extend vehicle replacement cycles.

“The overall market forecast suggests a slight decline with heavy and medium-duty vehicles down about 6–7%,” said Gabe Slack, Sales Enablement Manager at GM. “GM is experiencing steady or slightly increased market share, emphasizing stability through price protection and assurance programs to mitigate tariff impacts. Customers are more cautious right now, often extending vehicle life cycles beyond traditional replacement timelines due to market uncertainties.”

Strategic resilience is evident in how companies respond: OEMs, such as General Motors, absorb profit margin compression through flexible manufacturing and in-region production shifts to maintain customer trust. Simultaneously, major fleet partners like Holman actively repatriate suppliers and diversify sourcing to foster price stability.

The Transformation of Asset Management

The most significant technological change is fleet electrification, with EV adoption rates fluctuating due to changing subsidy and regulatory drivers. The fluid nature of external incentives ensures that alternative fuels like LPG and CNG also remain strategically relevant where infrastructure and use cases align. All of this entails a corresponding shift toward thinking in terms of long-term Total Cost of Ownership (TCO).

“Operational resilience begins with optimized asset utilization,” explained Joe Birren, Regional Engineering Manager at Holman. “Ever since the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve been advocating fleet right-sizing and recommending that businesses move toward proactive factory ordering to avoid being caught in stock shortages or reactive buying cycles.”

Financial Innovation and the Shift to Service

Financial strategy is equally pivotal in managing volatility. As the end of 2025 approaches, lenders are exercising caution in credit evaluations, prioritizing borrowers with strong repayment capacity. To ease customer cash flow challenges in a high-interest environment, finance terms are lengthening and being coupled with lower down payments.

The industry is also seeing remarkable adaptations to what has traditionally been a bedrock of commercial transportation: vehicle ownership.

“One of the most transformative elements is the shift away from outright ownership,” explained Kirk Mann, Executive Vice President & Head of Transportation, Vendor Solutions Mitsubishi HC Capital America. “Innovative financing platforms are scaling models like Equipment-as-a-Service (EaaS) and shared asset frameworks (Truck-as-a-Service, or TaaS). This fundamentally changes the transaction from a high capital expenditure (CapEx) investment to a more predictable operational expenditure (OpEx), allowing fleet operators to pay for utilization rather than ownership risk.”

Core Fundamentals and Future Trajectory

Success will not be found in a sudden revolution; rather, it lies in the unwavering execution of core business fundamentals. Maintaining stability, dependable service, and transparent communication with customers and partners are the essential drivers of trust. By leveraging technology to enhance efficiency and adopting agile financial models, strategic resilience positions the commercial vehicle sector to successfully weather short-term turbulence and capture its robust, multi-trillion-dollar long-term growth trajectory.

Watch the full Road Ahead: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities conversation here.